Levent Bulut, PhD
Lecturer in Economics, Department of Economics and Finance at Valdosta State University
From Valdosta, GA
From Valdosta, GA
Dr. Levent Bulut joined the Valdosta State University faculty in 2017. He holds a Doctor of Philosophy in economics from the University of Houston, a Master of Arts in economics from Marmara University, and a Bachelor of Arts in finance from Bilkent University. He is currently pursuing a Master of Arts in business analytics from the Georgia Institute of Technology. He previously taught at Ipek University in Turkey, the University of Georgia, Georgia State University, and Emory University.
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University of Houston
Georgia Institute of Technology
Bilkent University
Lecturer of Economics at Valdosta State University
During this time period, I earned the following awards and recognitions:
* 2019 Affordable Learning Georgia Mini-Grant for Ancillary Materials Creation and Revision, Board of Regents of the University System of Georgia
* 2019 Valdosta State University Faculty Scholarship
* 2018 Rea and Lillian Steele Grant, Valdosta State University
* 2018 Valdosta State University Faculty Scholarship
August 2017 - Present
Assistant Professor at Ipek University
During this time period, I earned the following awards and recognitions:
* 2015-2017 The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK), Postdoctoral Reintegration Fellowship
* 2015 Ipek University Travel Fund
August 2014 - August 2017
Lecturer in Economics at The University of Georgia
August 2012 - August 2014
Visiting Assistant Professor of Economics at Georgia State University
During this time period, I earned the following awards and recognitions:
* 2012 Georgia State University Travel Fund
August 2011 - June 2012
Visiting Professor of Economics at Emory University
August 2007 - June 2011
Google Trends and Structural Exchange Rate Models for Turkish Lira-US Dollar Exchange Rate
Authors: Bulut, L. & Dogan, C., In this paper, we use Google Trends data to proxy macro fundamentals that are related to two conventional structural determination of exchange rate models: purchasing power parity model and the monetary exchange rate determination model. We assess forecasting performance of Google Trends based models against random walk null on Turkish Lira–US Dollar exchange rate for the period of January 2004 to August 2015. We offer a three-step methodology for query selection for macro fundamentals in Turkey and the US. In out-of-sample forecasting, results show better performance against no-change random walk predictions for specifications both when we use Google Trends data as the only exchange rate predictor or augment it with exchange rate fundamentals. We also find that Google Trends data has limited predictive power when used in year-on-year growth rate format.
Articles
Google Trends and the Forecasting Performance of Exchange Rate Models
In this paper, we use Google Trends data for exchange rate forecasting in the context of a broad literature review that ties the exchange rate movements with macroeconomic fundamentals. The sample covers 11 OECD countries’ exchange rates for the period from January 2004 to June 2014. In out‐of‐sample forecasting of monthly returns on exchange rates, our findings indicate that the Google Trends search query data do a better job than the structural models in predicting the true direction of changes in nominal exchange rates. We also observed that Google Trends‐based forecasts are better at picking up the direction of the changes in the monthly nominal exchange rates after the Great Recession era (2008–2009). Based on the Clark and West inference procedure of equal predictive accuracy testing, we found that the relative performance of Google Trends‐based exchange rate predictions against the null of a random walk model is no worse than the purchasing power parity model. On the other hand, although the monetary model fundamentals could beat the random walk null only in one out of 11 currency pairs, with Google Trends predictors we found evidence of better performance for five currency pairs. We believe that these findings necessitate further research in this area to investigate the extravalue one can get from Google search query data.
Articles
Does Statistical Significance Help to Evaluate Predictive Performance of Competing Models?
In Monte Carlo experiment with simulated data, we show that as a point forecast criterion, the Clark and West's (2006) unconditional test of mean squared prediction errors does not reflect the relative performance of a superior model over a relatively weaker one. The simulation results show that even though the mean squared prediction errors of a constructed superior model is far below a weaker alternative, the Clark- West test does not reflect this in their test statistics. Therefore, studies that use this statistic in testing the predictive accuracy of alternative exchange rate models, stock return predictability, inflation forecasting, and unemployment forecasting should not weight too much on the magnitude of the statistically significant Clark-West tests statistics.
Articles
Current Account Dynamics and Degree of Capital Mobility
By modelling the current account balances (as a percentage of GDP) in a dynamic AR(1) model, Taylor proposed to use speed of mean reversion of the dynamics of the current account as a tool for measurement of capital mobility and confirmed the stylized fact of U-Shape degree of capital mobility through the last two centuries with this new approach. With the assumption that countries obey their Long-Run Budget Constraint (LRBC), the OLS estimate of the degree of current account persistency in Taylor is downward bias due to small sample and high serial correlation of current account ratios with its lags. By correcting these biases with the Andrews exact median-unbiased estimation, we find that the confidence intervals for half-life estimates include 1 year (which was used as a benchmark) in 37 out of 75 country–period cases, which cast some doubt on the use of half-life estimate as a practical measure of capital mobility.
Articles
Market Disciplining of the Developing Countries' Sovereign Governments
n this article, we contribute to the current literature on market disciplining of the sovereign governments of the developing countries by distinguishing both sides of the market discipline hypothesis by adopting three‐stage least square estimation to incorporate the contemporaneous feedback effects between primary structural budget balances and the country's default‐risk premiums. We provide empirical evidence of a unidirectional causal relationship between a country's default‐risk premium and primary structural budget balances with the direction flowing from primary structural budget balances to country's risk premium in 40 developing countries over the period 1975–2008. We also employ the Arellano‐Bond dynamic panel generalized methods of moments estimation to control for this joint determination of primary structural budget balances and the country's default‐risk premium, and find supportive evidence of undisciplined sovereign governments and of nonlinearly behaving well‐functioning financial markets in the sample countries.
Articles
External Debts and Current Account Adjustments
We empirically investigate the effect of net external debts on the size of mediumterm current account balances. We utilize an approach where net external debt
positions behave like a “shadow interest rate” in affecting the current account
imbalances. In a simple accounting framework, we find supportive evidence of
the adjustment role of the net external debt positions on the current account balances. Our findings show that net external debt holdings affect current account
imbalances through their effect on domestic investment and private consumption. Government expenditures, on the other hand, isn’t affected by net external
debt holdings. We also find that developing (OECD) countries in the sample
would have run higher current account deficits (surpluses) in the absence of the
negative impact of net external debt positions on investment and consumption.
Net external debt positions, therefore, reduce the dispersions of current account
imbalances, thus, increase the correlation of investment and saving ratios.
Articles
Market Discipline in Turkey Before and after the 2001 Financial Crisis
This paper compares the effectiveness of market discipline mechanisms in the banking sector before and after the 2001 financial crisis in Turkey. It employs an empirical model that incorporates the contemporaneous feedback effects between deposits growth rate and the implicit interest rate. Using 3SLS procedure, the results show that market disciplinary forces in Turkey have been effective both before and after the 2001 financial crisis. The findings show that the effect of the implicit interest rate on deposits becomes more sensitive to bank risk fundamentals after the 2001 financial crisis. Depositors, on the other hand, do not change their behavior in the aftermath of the crisis which can be explained by an implicit “too-big-to-fail'' protection at work.
Articles
Predictability and Specification in Models of Exchange Rate Determination
We examine a class of popular structural models of exchange rate determination and compare them to a random walk with and without drift. Given almost any set of conditioning variables, we find parametric specifications fail. Our findings are based on broad entropy functional of the whole distribution of variables and forecasts. We also find significant evidence of nonlinearity and/or higher moment influences which seriously questions the habit of forecast and model evaluation based on mean-variance criteria. Taylor rule factors may improve out of sample forecasts for some models and exchanges, but do not offer similar improvement for in-sample (historical) fit. We estimate models of exchange rate determination nonparametrically so as to avoid functional form issues. Taylor rule and some other variables are smoothed out, being statistically irrelevant in sample. The metric entropy tests suggest significant differences between the observed densities and their in- and out- of sample forecasts and fitted values. Much like the Diebold-Mariano approach, we are able to report statistical significance of the differences with our more general measures of forecast performance.
Publications
"Is Gold a Safe Haven? International Evidence revisited"
Presenter at the 39th Middle East Economic Association Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA, 01/2019
Presentations
"Finding a scapegoat of the exchange rate anomaly with machine learning methods"
Presenter at the 38th International Symposium on Forecasting, Boulder, CO, 6/2018
Presentations
"Google Trends and Exchange Rates"
Invited Speaker at the 3rd Annual Global Quantitative Strategy Conference, Deutsche Bank Office, New York, NY, 10/2015
Presentations
"Google Trends and Forecasting Performance of Structural Exchange Rate Models"
Presenter at the 35th International Symposium on Forecasting, Riverside, CA, 6/2015
Presentations
"The commodity Markets"
Presenter at the Annual Meetings of the Georgia Political Science Association, Savannah, GA, 11/2013
Presentations
"External Debts and Current Account Adjustments"
Presenter at the Southern Economic Association Conference, New Orleans, LA, 11/2007
Presentations
"Predictability and Specification in Models of Exchange Rate Determination”
Presenter at the Midwest Economic Association Conference, Evanston, IL , 4/2012
Presentations
"The Performance of Alternative Nonlinear Models of Exchange Rate Determination"
Presenter at the Southern Economic Association Conference, Atlanta , GA , 11/2010
Presentations
"External Debt Holding Costs and Current Account Adjustments"
Presenter at the Southern Economic Association Conference, New Orleans, LA, 11/2007
Presentations
"Bond Holdings Cost in International Borrowings"
Presenter at the Southern Economic Association Conference, Charleston , SC , 11/2006
Presentations
"Degree of Capital Mobility in a Dynamic Current Account Framework: Median Unbiased Persistency Measure of Current Account"
Presenter at the Southern Economic Association Conference, Washington , D.C., 11/2005
Presentations
Levent Bulut Receives Degree from Georgia Tech
Levent Bulut of Valdosta, GA has earned a Master of Science in Analytics from the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta. Bulut was among approximately 3,800 undergraduate and graduate studen...
January, 28 2021 - Verified by Georgia Institute of Technology