Luke Jones, PhD

During this time period, I earned the following awards and recognitions:

* 2009 Summer Graduate Research Fellow

During this time period, I earned the following awards and recognitions:

* 2006-2011 J. Fred and Wilma A. Holly Fellowship

* 2006 McClure Fund Grant for the Study of World Affairs

* 2006 Graduate Student Travel Award

* 2005 Maryland International Education Association Study Abroad Scholarship

Co-authored by Ziwen Ling, Christopher R. Cherry, Hongtai Yang and Luke R. Jones. Household car ownership has risen dramatically in China over the past decade. At the same time a disruptive transportation technology emerged, the electric bike (e-bike). Most studies investigating motorization in China focus on macro-level economic indicators like GDP, with few focusing on household, city-level, environmental, or geographic indicators, and none in the context of high e-bike ownership. This study examines household vehicle purchase decisions across 59 cities in China with broad geographic, environmental, and socio-economic characteristics. We focus on a subset of households who own e-bikes and rely on a telephone survey from an industry customer database. From these responses, we estimate two three-level hierarchical choice models to assess attributes that contribute to (1) recent car purchases and (2) the intention to buy a car in the near future. The results show that the models are dominated by household characteristics including household income, household size, household vehicle ownership, number of licensed drivers and duration of car ownership. Some geographic, environmental and socio-economic factors have significant influences on car purchase decisions. Only two city-level transportation variable have an effect – higher taxi density and higher bus density reducing car purchase. Cold weather, population density gross domestic product per capita positively influence car purchase, while urbanization rate reduces car purchase. Because of supply heterogeneity in the data set, described by publicly available urban transportation data, this is the first study that can include geographic and urban infrastructure differences that influence purchase choice and suggests potential region-specific policy approaches to managing car purchase may be necessary.

Co-authored by Luke R. Jones and Christian A. Vossler. Many watersheds in the U.S. have established water quality trading programs to help realize cost-effective reductions in water pollution; however, the success of these programs has been limited. This study highlights some of the unique features of water-based credit trading markets that may explain the lack of success, and uses laboratory experiments to isolate their effects. In particular, we compare two forms of a baseline-and-credit institution, a Pigouvian tax/subsidy regulation, and – characteristic of air quality programs – a textbook cap-and-trade regulation. Across these institutions we examine the effects of abatement technology adoption. We find that a baseline-and-credit program, when it requires firms to make upfront investments to generate tradable credits, is less efficient than cap-and-trade and tax/subsidy institutions. Furthermore, we find that when efficient trading requires costly technology adoption, institutions that involve inter-firm trading, including cap-and-trade, are less efficient than the tax/subsidy.

Co-authored by Andrew A. Campbell, Christopher Cherry, Megan Ryerson and Luke Jones. In developing countries, the rapid pace of socioeconomic and technological change necessitates the use of quick-response survey methods. Transportation researchers often work with limited budgets in environments with relatively low rates of computer and Internet access. Such conditions can preclude the use of the computer-assisted survey methods that are preferred for conducting research in industrialized countries. This paper describes novel methods for low-cost and high-quality data collection in a data-poor environment. The context is a stated preference (SP) experiment to estimate adoption of bikeshare and electric bikeshare in Beijing, but the methods are transferable. Two main methodological contributions are described. The first is a unique survey design that allows SP pivoting to occur within a single pen-and-paper interview (PAPI). For small- to medium-sized surveys, this design is often more cost-effective than traditional pivoting methods that require either a multistage PAPI survey or computer-assisted interviews. The second contribution is the demonstration of the use of affordable GPS technologies and publicly available data for the purpose of survey protocol enforcement and quality control. The paper describes survey design features that are of particular value for nonmotorized or semimotorized transportation research.

Co-authored by Luke R. Jones, Christopher R. Cherry, Vu Tuan and Nguyen Quang. Many Asian cities are experiencing rapid growth in the ownership of personal gasoline-powered motorcycles, a shift away from relatively low-emitting modes of transportation that is contributing to deteriorated air quality. Electric two-wheelers have the potential for significant air pollution reductions as an alternative to gasoline-powered motorcycles; however, they have yet to penetrate many Asian markets. While previous research has examined the adoption of cleaner alternatives to gasoline-powered automobiles (e.g., hybrid electric cars), similar work on motorcycle alternatives is lacking. This study uses a stated preference survey of households in Hanoi, Vietnam to analyze adoption of electric two-wheelers, while focusing on the effects of economic incentives (e.g., differential sales taxes and fuel prices) and technological improvements (e.g., more efficient batteries). A choice model is estimated and market shares are calculated for scenarios involving different levels of electric two-wheeler technology, gasoline prices, and sales tax rates. Results indicate that technological improvements and economic incentives, particularly sales taxes, have significant effects on adoption.

Co-authored by Todd L. Cherry, Stephen J. Cotten and Luke R. Jones. Because game theory suggests that the origin of a common-pool resource should not affect appropriation behavior, experimental studies of appropriation from common-pool resources generally presume resources are exogenously provided. However, behavioral economic research indicates that the origin of a resource may affect the use of that resource. We investigate the potential role of resource origin by considering the appropriation of a common-pool resource after users have determined its productive capacity through contributions. Results indicate that resource origin does not significantly influence aggregate appropriation levels but that endogenous resource provision leads to individual strategic behavior.

Co-authored by Ellis B. Heath and Luke R. Jones. This paper estimates underground economic activity in the US at the state-level from 1998–2010. Previous studies rely on direct methods for estimating underground economies, such as surveys or audits, or indirect methods such as money demand. These methods have serious drawbacks in that they either systematically underestimate underground economic activity or are prone to substantial error. The physical input approach is a potentially more accurate way of measuring underground activity that has received little attention in the literature. This paper reports on an innovative application of the physical input method – electricity demand – to establish a state ranking of underground economic activity and to estimate state and US underground economy.

Co-authored by Jill L. Caviglia-Harris, Erin O. Sills, Luke R. Jones, Shubhayu Saha, Daniel Harris, Suzanne McArdle, Dar Roberts, Marcos Pedlowski and Rebecca Powell. Research on tropical deforestation has been prolific, yet few studies have assessed the long-term dynamics of frontier migration and the resulting impacts on deforestation. These lacunae arise from the difficulty of obtaining the panel data required to evaluate the dynamic socioeconomic and land use processes of the advancing and aging frontier. Furthermore, the quality and design of household surveys reported in the land use literature are often not transparent, limiting possibilities for comparing results. This article first describes a three-round spatial panel survey of households in a settled and heavily deforested Amazon frontier region. We detail several methods that are employed to ensure and assess data quality. Second, we estimate forest clearing at the agent (household) level, using several sets of explanatory variables and sub-samples that would be generated by applying different field methodologies. We find the definition of the panel agent and the sampling frame to influence our estimations.

Co-authored by Luke R. Jones and Christian A. Vossler. So-called “cap-and-trade” markets, wherein polluters buy and sell pollution credits – which give the holder rights to pollute – have in recent decades been a prominent and publicly visible form of environmental regulation. The basic tenet of cap-and-trade markets is that they provide incentives for firms that face high costs of controlling emissions to pay firms with lower costs – by purchasing credits from them – to reduce their emissions instead.

Co-authored by Christopher R. Cherry and Luke R. Jones. Electric two-wheelers, which include vehicles ranging from electric bicycles to electric scooters, are becoming increasingly popular and important forms of urban transport in Asian cities, particularly in the People's Republic of China (PRC). While electric two-wheelers' popularity is evident in the PRC, their acceptance and adoption in other Asian countries is much more modest. The potential environmental benefit to Asian cities of electric two-wheelers could be significant, especially if electric two-wheelers replaced gasoline scooters and motorcycles. Electric two-wheelers in the PRC have been shown to have some of the lowest emission rates per kilometer compared to any motorized mode. This report consists of three main analyses for two Asian cities, Ahmedabad, India, and Ha Noi, Viet Nam. The first is a market analysis of both cities, using disaggregate stated-preference choice modeling method derived from user surveys to estimate the factors that influence electric two-wheeler purchase. Factors tested include vehicle price and performance characteristics, as well as variables like tax and licensing policy. The second analysis investigates electric two-wheeler emission rates based on electricity generation characteristics in Viet Nam and India. These analyses were conducted using two aggregate models to estimate primary pollutants and carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}). The final section of this report combines the market models with the emission estimates to develop scenarios of vehicle adoption and the influence of those varied adoption rates on average emissions of the two-wheeler population in each of these cities. Electric two-wheelers are much cleaner than their gasoline-powered two-wheeled counterparts on most metrics. Gasoline two-wheelers emit approximately double the CO{sub 2}, an order of magnitude more nitrogen oxides and particulate matter 10, and several orders of magnitude more volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide. Particulate matter 2.5 and sulfur dioxide emissions are unknown for gasoline two-wheelers, but electric two-wheelers could have higher emission rates of these pollutants because of reliance on fossil fuel power plants. Electric-two-wheelers in India have higher emission rates than those in Viet Nam because of India's higher reliance on coal power plants and higher electricity transmission loss rates. Viet Nam derives much of its electricity from natural gas power plants. E-scooters have the potential to improve air quality and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Viet Name and India. E-scooter adoption can increase with a combination of increased performance, reduced price, regulations favoring e-scooters (or harming gasoline two-wheelers), improved infrastructure, and effective marketing. These are all difficult to achieve, but the benefits could supplant other strategies toward reducing environmental problems.

Co-authored by Luke R. Jones, Christopher R. Cherry and Perry Gottesfeld. (2008) Vietnam Environmental Protection Agency Policy Paper

Co-authored by Larry G. Bray, Luke R. Jones, and Mark Burton. (2007) University of Tennessee Center for Transportation Research and the County Technical Assistance Service.

Co-authored by Murray, Matthew et al. (2007) Prepared for the Comptroller of the Treasury, State of Tennessee.

Boca Raton, November 2015

Santa Cruz, October 2013

Prague, June 2012

Knoxville, December 2010

Denver, July 2010

Milwaukee, July 2009

Knoxville, January 2009

Kunming, June 2008.

District of Columbia, November 2008

Kyoto, July 2006

Prague, June 2012

Milwaukee, July 2009

District of Columbia, November 2008